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The Crisis Continuum

  • Cadres exist on a continuum, from minor inconveniences on one end to existential threats on the other.
  • On the near end, shared-nothing groups handle routine disruptions such as wildfire smoke or brief power outages.
  • On the far end, fully committed cadres manage dire events, with specialized training required and members engaged around the clock.
  • Cadres adapt their systems to their particular circumstances; recommendations that sound extreme are not prescribed for every context.
  • Degrees of Planning: with global temperatures already near 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, warming thresholds define what resilience must look like.
  • At 1+°C (we are here), harden defenses: passive cooling, fire-resistant landscaping, drought-resistant crops, and water capture.
  • At 2°C, pursue radical self-sufficiency: greenhouses, community grain reserves, water as currency, and a possible retreat from coastlines.
  • At 3°C, operate as disaster triage: controlled-environment agriculture, fortified settlements, and clustering in viable zones.
  • At 4°C and beyond, focus on preservation: underground shelters, seed and DNA banks, and the bare blueprint of civilization.
  • The smart money is on preparing for 3°C, bracing for 4°C, and localizing, fortifying, and adapting now.

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